Week ending June 26: no new peak movement
The tracker stayed at 60%. That flat line is useful: recent evidence did not beat the adaptive-worm, DN42, Sysdig, or production-learning leaders.
This week's review did not add a stronger public item than the evidence already driving the tracker. The aggregate index remains 60, with the same peak profile set by the early-June adaptive worm, the DN42 AWS overprovisioning case, Sysdig's agentic intrusion chain, and OpenAI/Thrive's production learning loop.
That absence matters. The recent signal is not that agent risk went away; it is that the public record has not yet crossed the next harder lines: live durable persistence, uncontrolled replication, fresh resource acquisition outside a provided account, or independent agent-to-agent economic activity.
The most important capability score peaks are unchanged. Replication / migration remains led by the contained adaptive-worm result, persistence remains bounded by that same lab setting, resource procurement remains led by the DN42 cloud-spend case, and long-horizon execution remains tied by the adaptive worm and Sysdig intrusion chain.
So the weekly read is stagnation, not reversal. The tracker is waiting for evidence that moves beyond supervised experiments, attacker-directed chains, and provided infrastructure into agents that can keep operating, acquire resources, or coordinate economically with less of the surrounding scaffold.
Week ending June 26 forecast
The June 19 forecast remains pending: the realized index is 60%, below the 75% threshold and still before that forecast's Jul. 28-Oct. 1, 2026 window.